Ma io confido sul ravvedimento della Merkel (di cui si è avuto sentore negli ultimi giorni) e sul crescente prestigio di Monti (che è dell'avviso della necessità assoluta di salvare la Grecia ad ogni costo).
Fino ad ora si sono attribuite le maggiori responsabilità (dei rinvii e dell'eccesso di richieste di "austerity") al governo tedesco: ma quando si decide all'unanimità, e a volte anche quando si decide a maggioranza qualificata, può succedere che un gruppetto di piccoli stati – addirittura uno solo – diventi l'ago della bilancia che può far pendere dalla parte sbagliata la decisione o almeno causare un rinvio (che a volte è quanto mai deleterio). Nel caso del bail-out della Grecia, le maggiori richieste di garanzia (connesse con le maggiori richieste di "austerity" e di tagli della spesa pubblica – compresi tagli sui salari e pensioni –) provengono più da Finlandia, Olanda e Lussemburgo che dalla stessa Germania. Non so se nel fallimento del precedente vertice straordinario sulla questione del bail-out della Grecia si sia votato con decisioni all'unanimità o a maggioranza qualificata. Mi pare, però, d'aver capito [ma potrei anche aver capito sbagliato] che le maggiori responsabilità di quel fallimento (ufficilamente "rinvio delle decisioni") siano imputabili più ai tre stati minori che alla Germania.
Staremo a vedere. Anche noi col fiato sospeso in attesa dell'esito di questo ulteriore summit straordinario.
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Trascrivo da EUobserver.com l'articolo odierno su questo argomento.
[NB. Correlato con questo thread è il messaggio:
=> Germania e Italia "fiduciose" nel salvataggio della Grecia, (recensione da EUobserver,com, – Erasmus, 19.02.12 in "La Grecia è fallita")
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Fonte: A consiglio i ministri dell'Eurozona per decidere sul "bail-out" della Grecia

A €130bn bailout for Greece is expected to be agreed today after weeks of brinkmanship on both sides
(Photo: Wayne Lam (Ramius))
Eurozone ministers to decide on Greek bail-out
Monday 20 February 2012 @ 09:28
BY VALENTINA POP
BRUSSELS - Eurozone finance ministers on Monday (20 February) are expected to decide on a second bail-out package for Greece, after weeks of delays and external pressure on local politicians to stick to the highly contested austerity programme after elections are held.
Highlighting the importance of the occasion, Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos is also in Brussels with his office saying that today's meeting could "take very important decisions for the country and require immediate and thorough consultation between the Prime Minister and minister of finance."
Apart from seeking approval from eurozone countries and the International Monetary Fund on the €130bn bail-out, Papademos is also expected to hold talks with private creditors on a €100-billion debt relief deal.
Greece is struggling to secure the rescue deal before a 20 March deadline when it has to repay €14.5bn worth of bonds.
The parliament has already agreed on a €3.2bn package of highly unpopular spending cuts. The preceding parliamentary debate was accompanied by violent street protests and saw one far-right party leave the ruling coalition in the hope of boosting its popularity ahead of general elections due in April.
Germany, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Finland have in past weeks increased the pressure on political leaders to commit to the austerity measures no matter who wins the elections.
Berlin has meanwhile indicated it expects the deal to go through on Monday, after it made sure that several of its conditions are met: written pledges from coalition leaders and a special escrow account where bail-out money and Greek taxes will be earmarked for paying back the country's debtors.
"There is agreement within the Eurogroup that there will be such a special account, or 'escrow account' in jargon, for the disbursement of the second aid package," German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble told German daily Tagesspiegel on Sunday. "The account ensures a priority for debt reduction," he added.
Two more pieces of legislation, including wage and pension cuts, are due to be passed on Monday through parliament, with some 3,000 people protesting the cuts on Sunday. Some protesters were injured in clashes with police and some 60 people were detained.
Draghi to attend meeting
The main outstanding issue for ministers to resolve on Monday is the bridging of a €6 billion gap in order to meet the target of reducing Greece's debt from 160 to 120 percent of gross domestic product by 2020. The current debt analysis suggests that a €130bn bail-out plus the envisaged €100bn debt reduction on the bond swap with private investors will bring the debt down to only 129 percent of GDP.
One option would be for the European Central Bank and national central banks to step in by giving up their profits on the Greek bonds they hold. ECB chief Mario Draghi has already indicated he is open to this solution. He is expected to join the finance ministers on Monday.
Another solution would be for the temporary eurozone bail-out fund (EFSF), which will lend most of the money, to ask for a lower interest rate on the bail-out.
The more unlikely options are for the private investors to take a higher 'haircut' or for governments to top up the €130 sum.
"The good news is that the gap is not so huge - a difference in 9 percent of GDP is close to the original figures," one EU diplomat told this website, adding he was "cautiously optimistic" about the deal being sealed tonight.
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Related:
• Germany and Italy 'confident' on Greek bail-out
• Greece out of the euro - but what then?
• Eurozone ministers postpone Greek deal
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Ciao a tutti

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